THE ESSENTIAL ISSUE OF CLIMATE CHANGE!
Nice to have a term for it. In my first "Climate Change" piece I described this problem thusly.
"If someone from the future came and told you that the house you just bought is going to burst into flames 200 years from now, would you move?
Even if you believed the visitor from the future, would you take out insurance for a disaster that far in the future? Or would you just write a note for the next owners of the house and then live out the rest of your life without doing anything.
After all, not doing anything is so much cheaper and easier than trying to avert something that isn’t going to happen until long after you are dead. Most of us are going to choose option two.
Two hundred years is a very long time in human time.
The difference between 1820 and 2020 is roughly eight generations. It’s really difficult for us to work on things that happen in that time scale. Our lives are just too short, not enough happens in any one lifetime to really feel any urgency about a problem."
Unfortunately for everyone this problem doesn't exist anymore. The Climate Crisis we all feared is happening "right now".
It's later than you think.
The first big "Climate Shock" is about to hit. In 12 to 18 months a perfect storm of warming will kick in that will last 3-5 years.
It's a 3 part storm:
1. Albedo diminishing has doubled the rate of warming in the last 7 years. It's simple, if the planetary albedo declines, the earth warms up.
Here's the bad news: the Earth's albedo has been declining during the last 20 years in response to the planetary warming.
Earth's Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021 PNAS
2. The La Nina cycle we are in will flip into an El Nino.
Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions
Heat in World's Oceans More Than Ever Recorded .
Hottest ocean temperatures in history recorded last year.
3. Warming that was being masked by SOx emissions will rapidly take place due to the changes in diesel fuels in the shipping industry in 2020.
Cleaner Air in 2020: 0.5% sulfur cap for ships enters into force worldwide.
All of this will combine to push warming above 2C by 2026.
The next 2-6 years are going to be insanely hot,
This is going to trigger multifocal agricultural production failures globally.
Approximately 800 million to 1.5 billion people are probably going to starve in this time frame.
In Ukraine we are seeing the first war of the "Climate Crisis".
Agricultural output failures of 40% are already happening.
Putin's Strategy is coming into view. If you weren't clear on it, World War III has started.
Yes, Putin does know about Climate Change, he knows a lot.
Here's the science part.
Heat doesn't "just happen" - Where it's coming from and why that matters.
Additional Notes on Albedo Diminishment.
It's a lot to read, but yeah, 800 million to 1.5 billion dead over the next 5-6 years. With all the horrors that's going to bring. Dust Bowl 2.0 in the US for sure.
Oh, and the oceans are dying.
I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news but this is it.
We get the rest of this year and maybe some of 23' before Dust Bowl 2.0 starts in the US and the death toll starts climbing into the hundreds of millions globally.
