On Politics, War by Other Means — 04

Richard Crim
4 min readApr 12, 2022

Putin’s Strategy is coming into view. If you weren’t clear on it, World War III has started.

These are the world’s 8 breadbasket countries

Putin botched the opening strike on Ukraine. With that, went his one chance for a quick war. It’s going to be a grinding war of attrition now, but he thinks he can win it. He thinks it’s worth it.

The chart above tells you why.

There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about tactics, dilettantes discuss strategy, professionals study logistics. In a world where the grain supply in 2020 was 157.3m tonnes, Russia now controls 55.6m tonnes. About one third.

Russia just became a food superpower.

“So what”, you say. “Putin is losing”.


He reminded everyone that Russia is still a nuclear power. He made it very clear he would use them if other countries attempted to intervene directly. Guess what? No one was willing to cross that line and call his bluff.

No other powers are going to intervene in Ukraine. Putin kept everyone else out of the conflict.

That means it’s just Russia versus Ukraine.

Russia will win that war.

“You’re crazy”, you say. That makes no sense. The Russians are losing. Their troops are crap. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homes. Everyone is giving them weapons. Russia has been cut off from world trade. It’s economy is going to shrivel up and collapse. Putin’s days are numbered.

I don’t think so.

What I see, when I look at the board, is that there are about to be about 100–200 million climate refugees pouring out of Africa and the Middle East.

These are the most vulnerable populations.
These are the most dependent countries.

Famines are going to start being felt in many of these countries by the end of this Summer.

Richard Crim

My entire life can be described in one sentence: Things didn’t go as planned, and I’m OK with that.