On Politics : War by other Means — 03

We are having a Sarajevo moment

Richard Crim
13 min readMar 1, 2022
This graph shows the downward trend in Earth’s albedo, as measured by earthshine (black) and CERES data (blue) in watts per square meter. Image credit: Goode et al. (2021), Geophysical Research Letters.

In Ukraine, we may be seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”.

See the graph above, that’s what a “Climate Crisis” looks like.

That graph records the Earth’s albedo declining over the last 20 years. Not a lot, just about 0.7W/m2 (Watts per square meter). That’s the equivalent of a panel with 200 light bulbs on it, having one go out and one get dimmer. It doesn’t sound like much.

Except that the sum effect of all of our GHG forcings during that period was about 0.6W/m2.

Since 2010 the rate of global warming has doubled. If you look at the temperature record you can see this happening.

The last seven years have all been above 1.0℃, it will never be below 1.0℃ again in your lifetime

This is the coldest it will probably be for the rest of century. And we are about to have a massive heat spike. Because the La Nina is almost over.

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Richard Crim

My entire life can be described in one sentence: Things didn’t go as planned, and I’m OK with that.