Living in Bomb Time — 22

I’m actually being “conservative” when I tell you that things are bad.

This graph shows the downward trend in Earth’s albedo, as measured by earthshine (black) and CERES data (blue) in watts per square meter. Image credit: Goode et al. (2021), Geophysical Research Letters.

So, if you don’t know what this graph is, then you don’t know what’s happening with the climate system right now. I’m not going to explain it again, this is one of the most important graphs in the history of climate science. It’s right up there with the “hockey stick” graphic.

So, learn what this graph means: it’s important.

Here’s the paper it’s from.

Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021

Here’s my discussion and analysis.

Climate Report Part Three continued: Heat doesn’t “just happen”; Where it’s coming from and why that matters

Here’s some additional things you should notice about this graph.

1. When Goode says that the Earth’s albedo has declined about 0.6W/m2 since 1999, he’s not referring to where the blue dotted line ends up in “2020”. He’s talking about the black-dotted-line between 1999 and 2017.

The one that starts at +0.4W/m2 and ends at -0.2W/m2.

That’s the 0.6W/m2 of additional “climate forcing” due to albedo diminishment that Goode is talking about.

2. When Goode talks about the unexpected decline since 2010 he’s discussing the the part of the graph between the two red arrows.

This part of the graph shows the albedo declining from 2010 to 2014, when Goode thought it would then go up again. Goode has stated. “I would have bet my house that those last three years were going to look just like the previous 17. Now we have this really cool mystery.”

3. What Goode is talking about is what happened in 2014 (the green arrow). They expected that the Earth’s albedo would start climbing again, like it did in 2009. Instead it went down, for the next three years.

4. Goode’s study stops in 2017 because his 20 year project ran out of funding.

Personal Note: Oh, gee. Wouldn’t it have been great if Goode’s project hadn’t run out of funding in 2017. Then WE WOULD KNOW what the albedo was doing. Who, oh who was President at that time?