A good piece, about what I would expect from someone from Santa Clara University (a friend went there in the 70's). You seem well informed on the climate situation but I suspect you don't know just how late it's gotten.
So, I'm evangelizing a bit here, but you seem like you might want to know this.
It's later than you think.
In 2021, the "Observable" Global Mean Temperature (GMT) was 1.1℃ above the 1950–1980 baseline. This happened despite it being a La Niña year in the Pacific Ocean, a weather pattern which tends to cool the planet.
It was the seventh year in a row in which global temperatures were more than 1 degree Celsius above the preindustrial average. Short of geoengineering the climate, no one alive today will ever see the world's temperature drop below that 1-degree benchmark again.
There is no going back, and we are about to have a "heatwave".
Forecasters say there's a 93 per cent chance that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record.
Earth Stands '50:50' Chance Of Passing 1.5 Degrees Warming Within 5 Years - Forbes
Fifty-fifty chance' global warming hits 1.5°C by 2026, warn scientists - Euronews
There's a 50:50 chance the planet will pass the 1.5C warming threshold in the next 5 years - CNN
As 1.5C overshoot looms, a high-level commission will ask: what next? - Climate Home News
World has 50–50 chance of hitting 1.5C mark soon: U.N. - Frontline India
When will the world reach 1.5C of global heating? - The Guardian
When the IPCC says that there is a 50% chance the GMT will "temporarily" exceed 1.5℃ of warming by 2026, what exactly do they mean by that?
You should want to know.
Because in 2021 the GMT was at 1.1℃ of warming. Climbing to 1.5℃ by 2026 means;
THEY ARE FORECASTING 0.4C OF WARMING IN JUST 4 YEARS!
Almost half a degree of warming in the next four years.
For perspective:
It took about 100 years for the GMT to climb 0.4C between 1880 and 1980.
Between 1975 and 2015 the GMT increased by about 0.18C per decade.
They are forecasting an increase of 0.1C per year, for the next four years.
There are two things you should ask yourself when you read this.
1. This is a huge amount of energy being released into the climate system. Where is it coming from, what's the source of this heat?
2. What "exactly" do they mean when they say this heating will be temporary?
Because, what it looks like to me, is that they just confirmed my analysis.
In Ukraine, we are seeing the first war of the "Climate Crisis".
Agricultural output failures of 40% are already happening.
Putin's Strategy is coming into view. If you weren't clear on it, World War III has started.
This Earth Day, here's the last hope I have - A Climate Crisis state of play.
Here's the science part.
Heat doesn't "just happen" - Where it's coming from and why that matters.
I am forecasting 800 million to 1.5 billion deaths over the next five years.
It's a lot to read, but yeah, 800 million to 1.5 billion dead over the next 5-6 years. With all the horrors that's going to bring. Dust Bowl 2.0 in the US for sure.
I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news but this is it.
We get the rest of this year and maybe some of 23' before Dust Bowl 2.0 starts in the US and the death toll starts climbing into the hundreds of millions globally.
The fifth act has already started.
