Short Takes — 07

Enjoy today. The rest of the year, the forecast is for HEAT.

Forecast Models Projecting El Nino for Mid-to-late 2023 with Increasing strength. 2023 looks like its going to be HOT.

So, last year (March 1, 2022) I made a forecast.

On Politics : War by other Means — 03 :We are having a Sarajevo moment.

Here’s what I said then.

The first big “Climate Shock” is about to hit. In 12 to 18 months a perfect storm of warming will kick in that will last 3–5 years.

It’s a 3 part storm:

This graph shows the downward trend in Earth’s albedo, as measured by earthshine (black) and CERES data (blue) in watts per square meter. Image credit: Goode et al. (2021), Geophysical Research Letters.

1. Albedo diminishing has doubled the rate of warming in the last 7 years. It’s simple, if the planetary albedo declines, the earth warms up.

Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021

Living in Bomb Time — 20 : Heat doesn’t “just happen”, where it’s coming from and why that matters.

Living in Bomb Time — 22 : I’m actually being “conservative” when I tell you that things are bad. Additional notes on albedo diminishment.

2. The La Nina cycle we are in will flip into an El Nino.