I am always so torn when reading articles like this. I know you "mean well". BUT...
You are so delusional about what's actually happening that your efforts have become worse than useless.
I won't bore you with a 10,000 word rant. I'm sure you get plenty of rants. My work is here on Medium.
The Crisis Report — 23 (Part One)
What went wrong. A Climate Paradigm Postmortem or “How the Fossil Fuel Industry, the Republicans, and the Climate Science Moderates of the 80’s stole the rest of your life”
What went wrong. A Climate Paradigm Postmortem. Part Two
Unclothing the Emperor : Understanding “What’s Wrong” with our Climate Paradigm.
Unclothing the Emperor : Understanding “What’s Wrong” with our “Climate Paradigm”. Part 2
Unclothing the Emperor : Understanding “What’s Wrong” with our “Climate Paradigm”. Part 3
Polar Amplification.
Unclothing the Emperor : Understanding “What’s Wrong” with our “Climate Paradigm”. Part 4
The PERMAFROST — is MELTING, “faster than expected”.
Do you know the work of Kuhn, "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions"?
Kuhn coined the term "paradigm shift" to describe the social process in a scientific field when an existing "dominant worldview" is proven "incorrect" and collapses.
The "Climate Science" you are using is from the "Old Paradigm". It's about to COLLAPSE. It no longer describes the reality we are experiencing.
Ask yourself, "did Climate Science ever account for the fossils of alligators and palm trees in the High Arctic during the PETM"?
Because it CANNOT. To this day there is no way using our current understanding of the Climate System to explain how the High Arctic can warm the +35C required to make those fossils possible.
Climate Science split into TWO FACTIONS in 1979 at the Woods Hole Climate Conference.
MODERATES and ALARMISTS.
Held in reaction to the Frank Press memo to President Carter in 1977. Their mandate was to decide how much warming 2XCO2 from the 1850 baseline of 280ppm would cause.
The Climate Paradigm of the Moderates.
Tracing its roots back to Callendar, who in 1938 calculated a +2°C temperature rise for a carbon dioxide doubling (2xCO2). The MODERATE position “coalesced” in 1979 at the five-day “ad hoc” study group on carbon dioxide and climate in Woods Hole, Massachusetts.
The Moderates saw the planetary climate system as being resistant to change, strongly self correcting, and reactive only on centennial or millennial timescales.
They THEORIZED that “Climate Sensitivity” to 2xCO2 (A doubling of CO2 levels) would be between +2C and +3C.
Hansen’s Climate Sensitivity estimate in Global warming in the pipeline = (4.8°C ± 1.2°C).
Later on in 1998, they THEORIZED that “Polar Amplification” or “Arctic Amplification” would be “less that twice” the amount of “overall warming”.
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979
Communications Earth & Environment volume 3, Article number: 168 (Aug 2022)
Lastly, they UNDERESTIMATED the amount of Carbon in the Permafrost by AT LEAST 100%.
In 2008, the first REAL study of Arctic permafrost and its potential to influence the Climate System, DOUBLED the estimate for the amount of organic carbon held in permafrost soils.
Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle
The MODERATES got EVERYTHING wrong and you are still listening to them. You are still acting like anything they say is meaningful.
What happened last year was unprecedented. You aren't seeing it for what it was. You don't want too. Neither are the Moderate Climate Scientists.
Their attitude has been something like this statement from climate researcher Dr. Dessler in an NYT interview in Dec. 2023 about the “unprecedented” warming in 2023.
“On its own, one exceptional year would not be enough to suggest something was faulty with the computer models. Your default position has to be, ‘The models are right.’”
That's "the science" you are betting the future on.
In contrast here's James Hansen, who was at Woods Hole in 1979 and is an ALARMIST.
Comments on Global Warming Acceleration, Sulfur Emissions, Observations — (16 May 2024) James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko Sato
Hansen states:
“Global temperature (12-month mean) is still rising at 1.56°C relative to 1880–1920 in the GISS analysis through April (Fig. 1). [Robert Rohde reports that it is 1.65°C relative to 1850-1900 in the Berkeley Earth analysis.3] Global temperature is likely to continue to rise a bit for at least a month, peak this summer, and then decline as the El Nino fades toward La Nina.”
“Present extreme planetary energy imbalance (EEI) will limit La Nina-driven temperature decline.”
Thus, El Nino/La Nina average global temperature likely is about 1.5°C, suggesting that, for all practical purposes, global temperature has already reached that milestone."
The planetary ALBEDO has dimmed by -1.8W/m2 since 1999. Goode's Project Earthshine and the CERES data say this. The EEI has increased from +0.6W/m2 in 2010 to +1.8W/m2 in 2023.
+15Zj of ENERGY was measured by the ARGO floats going into the global oceans last year. 470,000,000 million Hiroshima bombs worth of ENERGY. 3.4 bombs for every square mile of open water on the planet.
There are over 4500 robotic ARGO floats measuring temperatures down to 2,000m now. They started coming online in 2000.
The ARGO floats have found 40% more HEAT in the oceans than the models of the Moderates predicted.
The Climate Sensitivity guesses the Moderates made back in 1979 were WRONG. They were based on an incomplete understanding of the Climate System.
In the paper “Climate effects of aerosols reduce economic inequality. Nature Climate Change, 2020; DOI: 10.1038/s41558–020–0699-y” the authors find that:
"Estimates indicate that aerosol pollution emitted by humans is offsetting about 0.7 degrees Celsius, or about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, of the warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. This translates to a 40-year delay in the effects of climate change. Without cooling caused by aerosol emissions, we would have achieved 2010-level global mean temperatures in 1970.”
You are still using the numbers of the Moderates to this day.
Perhaps you need to stop.
