First rate geopolitical analysis. Here's my situation briefing from June 2022 re: The China Situation.
Signals of Realignment
The Strategic Implications of the China-Russia Lunar Base Cooperation Agreement 03/21
Unless you really think this meeting and treaty was actually about a nonexistent hypothetical moonbase, something happened there. Putin and Xi made a deal.
China gets ready
China hoards over half the world’s grain, pushing up global prices 12/21
China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a “historically high level,” says the head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. “However, there is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food.”
China’s stockpile of wheat accounts for about half of the world’s supply, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 02/22
As China imports record levels of grain every year, an oft-repeated vow by President Xi Jinping is given greater impetus: “The Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly held in their own hands.” 03/22
China knew in advance
China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics -NYT 03/22 Reuters
China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics, Western intel shows 03/22 CNN
China Asked Russia to Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say 03/22 NYT
They made last minute agreements with Russia
Before Ukraine Invasion, Russia and China Cemented Economic Ties
Six days before the military campaign began, Russia announced a years long deal to sell 100 million tons of coal to China, a contract worth more than $20 billion. Just hours before Russia began bombing Ukraine, China agreed to buy Russian wheat despite concerns about plant diseases.
Russia and China reach agreement on wheat imports.
The effects of the Ukraine invasion on global grain prices will partly hinge on what China decides to do, the analysts said. China imports massive amounts of corn, barley and sorghum for animal feed from world markets. It could choose to buy those commodities, as well as wheat, from Russia instead of other countries. In such a situation, the impact of sanctions on global grain markets would be relatively small, they said.
On Thursday, China began approving imports of Russian wheat that had long been blocked because of Beijing’s concerns over fungus and other contaminants. The countries announced that China would begin importing Russian wheat and barley on Feb. 8, shortly after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia visited China ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
China has emerged as one of Russia’s strongest potential trade partners in the event of further sanctions from the West.
They have not sanctioned Russia
Chinese leaders have refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though they have also called for respecting national sovereignty.
Conclusion
The Ukraine invasion is a coordinated strike. Russia and China believe a “Climate Crisis” is unfolding. Their models probably indicate hundreds of millions are going to die.
To Putin and Xi, those people are already dead. As sure as if you put a bullet in them. They just don’t know it yet. Putin has no problem liquidating 20–30 million Ukrainians. Hundreds of millions are about to die.
Seizing Ukraine is about logistics.
It provides a secure source of wheat for China that doesn’t need shipment by sea. Which avoids US naval control of the oceans.
It provides Russia with a market for Ag products, energy products, and other raw materials. It gets access to everything China makes. Which, since China makes everything, makes sanctions sorta meaningless.
Most importantly, it makes them partners in surviving the crisis. Putin is betting Russia’s future on an alliance with China in the coming years.
The definition of “hoarding” is stockpiling food when you know a shortage is about to occur. By that definition, China is hoarding food. So, is India and a dozen other countries who have stopped food exports.
02022023- it's up to 26 countries now FYI.
Hell, I’m hoarding food right now. I think the situation is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
The food market is starting to seize up.
Here's my analysis. I am NOT POPULAR for this. I am the LUNATIC FRINGE, just so you know. ;-)
On Politics : War by other Means — 03
We are having a 1914 Sarajevo moment : The "Climate Collapse" Wars have started.
On Politics, War by Other Means — 04
Putin’s Strategy is coming into view. If you weren’t clear on it, World War III has started.
On Politics, War by Other Means — 05
Things are getting very tense about the 20 million tons of grain stuck in Ukraine. Here's why.
Let me ask you a question. How honest do you think governments are in what they tell you?
He wasn’t that honest. He still isn’t saying everything.
But, when do they ever tell us everything?
And finally:
Enjoy today. The rest of the year, the forecast is for HEAT.
