You might want to consider expanding your scope and considering this from another perspective.

In Ukraine, we may be seeing the first war of the "Climate Crisis".

When you think about this, it's important to consider motivation separately from execution.

Because Putin's generals f'ed up the execution. The feeling now, is that this was a massive error on Putin's part.

Which isn't really correct.

Just because you screw up the execution of a plan doesn't answer the question of why you came up with that plan in the first place. Everyone still has no answer for "why".

Why this? Why now?

Putin had to understand what the blow back was going to be like. So either you believe he thought,

"Russia needs to be cut off and isolated from the rest of the world for awhile. It will be good for us to be more self reliant and less open to foreign influences. I'm sure the Oligarchs won't mind spending more time at home.

Everyone is going to thank me for this, it will be great."

Or you look at alternative explanations.

Pundits, who for the most part know shit about what's happening with the climate system, are baffled by Putin's actions. No one can understand why he would take such an existential risk for no obvious reason. They point out that the sanctions are going to cause the Russian economy to wither "in the coming years".

This is absolutely true. Unless there is no "long term".

Putin isn't invading Ukraine because he's crazy.

He's invading because he thinks food is about to get scarce.

I think in 12 to 18 months we will know.