Yeah, tell me about it.

So, what happened is that the La Nina, to everyone's surprise, lasted a rare 3rd year through 2022. In November the main Climate Agencies made forecasts for 2023.

The Americans projected a less than 50% chance of an El Nino forming in 2023.

The Europeans forecast up to a 65% chance of an El Nino in 2023.

The Alarmists forecast a High probability (85%) of an El Nino in 2023.

The El Nino in 2023 was not a SURE thing. Shit like a major volcanic eruption can throw everything off.

Everyone AGREED that an El Nino was coming. Some thought it would start in 2023 and run into 2024. Some thought it would be 2024/2025.

Which is why the forecasts in 2022 all couched it in terms of PEAKING and dropping back by 2026. 2026 being the latest we could expect this to play out.

Obviously it hit in 2023. The Alarmist models were right.

Now, El Nino weather patterns generally last 2 years. The "run up" year and the "peak' year. The interval between them can be as low as 2 years and as much as 7 years.

So, we could get another El Nino as soon as 2025.

The other point that often gets overlooked. This was NOT a SUPER El Nino.

This was a "weak" El Nino in terms of the amount of HEAT it released from the Oceans. It seemed HUGE to us because of how HOT it made things.

In terms of what it could have been, it was much weaker than 2016 and 1998.

WHY was it so weak?

Good question, nobody (myself included) is sure.

What does it mean for the future?

I think it/s going to mean a HIGH risk of a "double tap" and a second El Nino in 25/26. One that has a VERY HIGH chance of being a "Super El Nino".

But that/s just me and my itty bitty models. I am going out on a limb even saying it to you now.

In six months, things will be a LOT clearer.

I don't expect GOOD news.