Worthy of being an opinion piece in Foreign Affairs. Grounded in deep historical knowledge and keen insight into today's events. Really well done article.
I like your conclusion.
Navigating through the threat of war between “emerging power” China and the “fading hegemon” of the US and, simultaneously, developing an Earth- and people-friendlier economic and social system is a tall order. But humanity — all of us — must try. We have no alternative. This is not where we wish to be. It is where we are.
Probably because I get to the same place in my most recent piece.
Here's the difference in our positions. You imagine going to war with China.
I am saying that we already are at war with China, and we are in trouble.
I am a big fan of Paul Kennedy's "Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" (1988)
Personally I find this to be the “best” book on this topic.
Kennedy states his theory in the second paragraph of the introduction as follows:
The “military conflict” referred to in the book’s subtitle is therefore always examined in the context of “economic change”.
The triumph of any one Great Power in this period, or the collapse of another, has usually been the consequence of lengthy fighting by its armed forces; but it has also been the consequences of the more or less efficient utilization of the state’s productive economic resources in wartime, and, further in the background, of the way in which that state’s economy had been rising or falling, relative to the other leading nations, in the decades preceding the actual conflict.
For that reason, how a Great Power’s position steadily alters in peacetime, is as important to this study as how it fights in wartime.
The relative strengths of the leading nations in world affairs never remain constant, principally because of the uneven rate of growth among different societies and of the technological and organizational breakthroughs which bring a greater advantage to one society than to another.
In terms of the current war.
We have announced plans to reopen bases in the Philippines.
We are considering allowing South Korea going nuclear.
Last month, the U.S. and Japan agreed to adjust the American troop presence on the island of Okinawa in part to enhance anti-ship capabilities that would be needed in the event of a Chinese incursion into Taiwan or other hostile acts in the South or East China sea.
They also added a formal mention of outer space in the longstanding U.S.-Japan security treaty, making clear that “attacks to, from and within space” could trigger the mutual defense provisions of the treaty.
*Note: What they are talking about when they say “within space” are things like the GPS satellite network. Meaning, if China tries to cripple our military capabilities by attacking assets in space, it’s an act of War"
And Japan announced it would begin constructing a pair of runways on the small southern island of Mageshima where joint exercises, amphibious operations and missile interception could begin in about four years.
How the US is boosting military alliances to counter China
On the diplomatic front, the U.S. opened an embassy in the Solomon Islands this week, in a direct effort to counter China’s growing influence there. There had been an embassy in the Solomons for several years, but it was closed in 1993 as part of a global reduction in diplomatic posts. Over time, however, the U.S. became concerned about possible weakening ties with the country.
The Solomon Islands switched allegiance from the self-ruled island of Taiwan to Beijing in 2019. And last year, the Solomons signed a security pact with China, raising fears of a military buildup by Beijing in the region.
In the West we obsess over Chess. In Asia the game of choice is Go. They are very different games.
Echoes of stones being played on the board.
Move and counter move.
A masterful stroke.
Sente China.
The point is not the balloons, the point is to scare White Trumpublican America into a panic.
So that they demand "The Homeland" be defended. So that they feel insecure and want to "pull in" US forces.
The average FOX viewer has no clue about our strategic weakness right now. They have no clue that 90% of the world’s supply of computer chips comes from Taiwan.
That it will take 5 to 10 years for any of the new plants funded by the CHIPS ACT to come online.
During that time, if anything happens to Taiwan the US is F'ED. We don’t make enough chips to resupply our military demand.
Oh, BTW we are BURNING through advanced munitions in Ukraine. Those being the force multiplier allowing them to hold their own against the Russians.
Let’s recap.
We are burning through advanced munitions faster than we can replace them and the plants that make 90% of the world’s supply of computer chips are right off the coast of China.
The snap of stones
on the board.
Encircling, capturing, defeating.
Plus, we have to keep supporting Ukraine. We have to project STRENGTH to the World. We are the DOMINANT SUPERPOWER.
Part of that is looking like we have bottomless resources.
If we suddenly "throttle back" now, it will look like we have run low on supplies. Suddenly we will look really WEAK.
There is an INSANE amount of diplomacy going on right now. The whole world order is being stressed.
Last year in Iran there were riots over water. They cut the taps in several cities and people rioted.
They fired into the rioters with live ammunition.
The riots going on right now are tied to the Climate Crisis. My simulations are now indicating a 75% likelihood of Civil War in Iran by the end of the year.
This will further destabilize the entire region and send additional waves of refugees into Europe. Dominoes are starting to fall.
Last Thought--
We don't really know 100% "for sure" what China's chip making capacity actually is. A LOT of manufacturing in China is done by the Military for internal consumption.
What if China has chip fabrication plants that no one knows about?
What if China is sitting on a stockpile of chips and is able to supply their military demand during a hot war.
If they have a stockpile, the US position is even weaker. They could simply outlast us.
“The greatest victory is that which is achieved without battle” —Sun Tzu
