Well, this is why Climate Doomers are unpopular. Nobody wants to hear that Collapse has already started. Nobody wants to hear what is ACTUALLY required to maintain civilizational continuity and the highest possible biosphere survival.

In Star Trek terms this is a "Kodos Dilemma" moment and Steve and I are on opposite sides of the debate.

There is a great little sci-fi parable called "The Cold Equations" about "radical acceptance" and "hope". Imagine you are in a spaceship and 1/2 the fuel is lost.

No matter what you do, there is only enough fuel to get half the passengers to safety. You have to ACCEPT that cruel reality before you can try to imagine any solutions.

Doomers have accepted the cruel reality of the current situation. Steve thinks he has, but I don't think he understands just HOW BAD things are.

Right now, almost no one does. That's why, in my view, you are still talking about "radical hope".

Hope for what exactly?

Hope that we will "muddle through" and that the world only warms up the +3°C the Moderates "worst case" projects. Hope that we "adapt" and "mitigate" our way through a difficult century and emerge with a smaller population but our societies and consumer culture essentially unchanged.

Is that the HOPE you are holding out for Steve?

Because that's what the Moderates and Techno Optimists are preaching, and it's what most people want to believe.

You HOPE the future is going to be a continuation of the past, just "hotter".

That's the "let's not put anyone out the airlock and HOPE a rescue ship arrives just before we run out of fuel and all die" solution. It's a CHOICE to risk everyone's lives, so that you don't have to make the painful sacrifices that would ensure at least some of the passengers were saved.

I don't believe there is any hope for your plan working Steve. I think we fucked with something we shouldn't have, and a MASSIVE climate disaster is upon us.

I think things are MUCH WORSE than you understand and accept. Which is why the idea of "resilience" in the face of this just seems silly to me.

We need to be nationalizing industries, we need to be unwinding the housing market, we need to be making billionaires disgorge their fortunes, we need to establish an Agency of Global Migration and start relocating people, we need to be shutting down consumer culture.

Those are the things we NEED to be doing. What Steve seems to be HOPING is that the "thousand points of light" he is describing will add up into a world saving last minute rescue.

I accept, that we are not going to do the things we need to do socially.

I accept, that in the absence of meaningful action, Collapse is inevitable.

I base my plans and actions for the next decade on what I think is the reality of the situation. As does Steve.

We will KNOW how bad things really are in about 2 years. I can predict that, with a high level of certainty, because I think I have a better grasp of the Climate System and the current crisis than Steve does.

I COULD BE WRONG.

If the situation changes for the better in the next 24 months I will accept Steve's analysis as superior and more realistic than my own. I will even be "hopeful" with Steve that this happens.

That won't stop my being a "Doomer".