Well Liam, kudos for seeing what's going on and how important it is. The first step is always seeing what's happening clearly.
Unfortunately you still don't have all the pieces. I predicted this Monster El Nino last year. I know why the oceans are so hot and I know where the heat is coming from.
Here's the short "just the science" answer.
Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021
“We have reported a two-decade long data set of the Earth’s nearly globally averaged albedo as derived from earthshine observations. …Remarkably, the inter-annual earthshine anomalies agree well with those from CERES satellite observations, despite their differences in global coverage, underlying assumptions to derive the albedo, and the very different sensitivities to retroflected and wider-angle reflected light.”
The two-decade decrease in earthshine-derived albedo corresponds to an increase in radiative forcing of about 0.5 W/m2, which is climatologically significant (Miller et al., 2014). For comparison, total anthropogenic forcing increased by about 0.6 W/m2 over the same period.
The CERES data show an even stronger trend of decreasing global albedo over the most recent years, which has been associated to changes in the PDO, SSTs and low cloud formation changes.
Hansen concurs, the rate of warming since 2015 has doubled to 0.36C per decade.
There's more, a lot more. It's worse than anyone understands yet. I saw it coming last March and wrote it up here.
On Politics : War by other Means — 03
We are having a Sarajevo moment. In Ukraine, we may be seeing the first war of the “Climate Crisis”.
If you want the synthesis of everything here's my recent article laying it all out.
I am predicting that the next few years are going to be disastrously HOT. That doesn’t make me a “Doomer”. It makes me realistic about what’s happening with the Climate System.
It's going to be BAD.
