Unless we get really crazy with nukes I don't think extinction is in the cards. Massive depopulation and the collapse of civilization are becoming more and more probable.

I have become less and less optimistic about the possibility of a "soft landing" over the last two years. Unless I am completely wrong we will not have the time to respond before we get overwhelmed.

That was the KEY thing, the MOST IMPORTANT thing we got wrong about Global Warming. How fast the Earth would heat up in response to our Carbon Bomb.

If agricultural output falls 50% over the next 30 years, there will be wars. Lots and lots of wars.

What will emerge from that is anybody's guess. I am fond of the idea of city-state's but Collapse could be apocalyptically bad with only smaller social units being stable.

Our descendants are not going to have an easy time of it.