This is perhaps the bleakest piece you have written. Every point you make is true. You are seeing the reality of the situation. It is bringing you to a place of rage and despair.
So maybe you are ready to hear what I have to say.
I am evangelizing intelligent climate writers with a new understanding of the current Climate Crisis. I hope you will consider what I have to say.
Let me ask you a question.
The question we should have asked in 1850, and 1976, and 2000, and 2016. Assuming you start at a CO2 level of 280ppm.
How much additional CO2 will it take to raise the Earth’s temperature by one degree more?
Imagine we are in 1850. The atmospheric CO2 level is 280ppm. You want to power an Industrial Revolution by burning coal, oil and gas.
You want to be responsible.
You have heard that too much CO2 in the atmosphere could warm up the entire planet. So, you go to the great universities and you ask.
How much fossil fuel can you safely burn powering an Industrial Revolution? If you don’t want to warm up the planet by more than 1C.
What do you think they would tell you?
If your answer was larger than about 30ppm.
Consider carefully why you think that.
Here's what 60 year's of paleoclimate research indicates.
What it tells us. Is that the Earth’s climate sensitivity is in an inverse relationship with the atmospheric CO2 level.
When CO2 levels are low — Climate Sensitivity is HIGH.
When CO2 levels are HIGH — Climate Sensitivity is low.
In simple terms, it means that the “first” 100ppm is the critical one. That’s the one where CO2 levels are the lowest and Climate Sensitivity is the highest.
This means that Global Warming is “front-loaded”.
The biggest surge of warming happens at the beginning. When CO2 levels are at their lowest.
The 1850 question is a trick question. Although they didn't know it.
There never was ANY safe level of CO2 we could dump into the atmosphere.
WE MISUNDERSTOOD THE EARTH'S CLIMATE STATE FROM THE BEGINNING.
In 1960, when modern climate science starts. We didn't know that we were living in the coldest period in 300my.
We didn’t know that the level of atmospheric CO2 was extremely low in terms of most of the planetary climate record.
Because we didn’t know that, we did not understand that we were living in the:
CO2 Level Low — Climate Sensitivity HIGH
End of the Earth’s climate spectrum of warming response.
The 140ppm we have already put into the atmosphere has “locked in” around 4C of warming. The only question now is how fast the planet warms up.
That's what you aren't getting yet. We misunderstood the climate system from the beginning and now we are about to get 2C of additional warming over the next 60 years.
Don't think so?
Consider why you don't think so. Then consider these data points.
The rate of warming has increased to 0.36C per decade. This accelerated rate of warming happened around 2015. James Hansen at Columbia is forecasting this rate of warming to persist until the equilibrium warming level is reached.
In 1850 the CO2 level was at 280ppm. It has increased to 420ppm. How much warming does this represent?
Consider that for the last 3 million years the CO2 level only fluctuated between 180ppm and 280ppm. A range of just 100ppm.
The 100ppm fluctuation between 180ppm and 280ppm causes 6.0C of warming.
Now why do you think 140ppm of CO2 is going to cause less than 4C of warming?
Who told you it would.
The paleoclimate studies from 60 years of paleoclimate research. Show that the last time the CO2 levels were this high, the Earth was 4C warmer and aspen forests were growing in Antarctica.
We have already baked in 4C of warming. Now the only question is how fast it happens.
At 0.36C of warming per decade it won't take long.
We are finally starting to get our act together but it's too late. The Ukraine War is a signal that Collapse is starting. Cascade failure has begun.
Do you think it can be reversed at this point. That the sandpile can be shored up and the avalanche stopped?
If you do not. Then it's time for those of us who understand what's happening. To start thinking in terms of what Collapse is going to mean.
