This is Going to be Bad Ep. 09

WH states C-19 is,” harmless for 99% of people”

Basically, admitting it kills 1.1–1.2%

So, Trump came out on Saturday and said C-19 has an Infection Mortality Rate of 1%. Of course, that’s not how he said it. He said, “C-19 is harmless for 99% of people”. An admission that they are now trying to back away from, FDA commissioner refuses to comment on Trump’s claim that 99 percent of coronavirus cases are ‘harmless’ because it sounds somewhat callous and a little addled when the news is full of increasing numbers of Covid-19 infections across the country. Still, this was a really telling admission of the truth by the WH and it probably means things are about to get bad. Just yesterday the CDC was saying the estimated Infection Mortality Rate was 0.5%. This doubles that estimate which should be shocking news. It signals they are anticipating a large spike of deaths about to start happening and are trying to get out in front of it by painting it as “only 1%”.

Because we know this WH and we know that they just bought up the world’s supply of remdesavir for the rest of the year, it follows that the actual Infectious Mortality Rate must be around 1.1–1.2%. They are admitting to 1%, but that 1% is probably their estimate “with remediation” from drugs like remdesavir and Dexamethasone and improved treatment protocols. Which means the actual C-19 Infection Mortality Rate is probably 1.1–1.2%. A little higher than I thought it was.

The only reason I can think of for Trump to say this, is if reality is forcing his hand. I think the death toll is about to start climbing rapidly and he and his political team are “pre-spinning” the coming carnage as “only 1%”.

It also signals that they have completely given up on containment. They would not be saying this if they thought there was a chance for social distancing, containment by local lock-downs, and local quarantines to smother out the spread of the virus anytime soon. Getting up and saying “Yea, only 1%, that’s not bad” is not what you do when you think you can control the spread of a virus. It is what you do when you are giving up. The WH data on the spread of the virus must be bad. It must be everywhere. Stopping it without a full national lockdown is probably impossible now, and there is no will or resolve for another lockdown. Which explains the astonishing statement today from the WH that, “the virus is here, and we need to learn to live with it”.

I guess that means everyone is OK with a possible 2 million people dying in the next 18–36 months. Although, I don’t recall being asked how I felt about it. The Governor of Florida was very reassuring to everyone by pointing out that although infection counts are soaring in Florida, it’s OK, because most of the new infections are young people and they don’t die like people in their 80’s and 90’s do. Which tells you what the Republican messaging is going to be: Covid-19 kills only 1% and it’s mostly the really old, the sick, and (rarely said out loud but understood by Republican voters) the brown.

For the rest of us, who live in the non-Republican world, this means that desperate days are ahead. This is going to be a state by state, city by city fight to try and suppress the spread of the virus and save as many people as possible who do get infected. It is becoming clear that the Trump administration is washing their hands of dealing with Covid-19. When the mayor of Phoenix asked for help from FEMA today with increasing testing capacity, she was told that, “FEMA is getting out of the testing business”.

So that is the way it is going to be this summer. No Federal management of the pandemic other than “thoughts and prayers” for the 1% who die. States and cities trying to scrape up the funds they need for their programs and hospitals filled with C-19 patients.

This is going to be bad.



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Richard Crim

My entire life can be described in one sentence: Things didn’t go as planned, and I’m OK with that.