This is a really good piece. You pull together a bunch of different threads and your analysis is interesting. Well done!

Thread One - Oil

I completely agree with the discussion of how oil is in everything around us. People have no idea how oil is in everything we do.

Pollan says it takes 50 gallons of oil to grow an acre of corn. He is correct about the amount of oil it takes to grow an acre. Without oil, we all starve, pretty fast.

Then there's fertilizer. Making nitrogen fertilizers takes enormous amounts of energy. We have been using natural gas for that. But natural gas is methane and it's 80 times more potent than CO2 in raising the temperature.

We have to stop using natural gas completely in the next 5-10 years or we will have a heat spike beyond belief in the 2035-2045 time-frame. If we don't have some some other energy source to make fertilizer with by then, billions will starve.

"There is no substitute for oil as an energy source."

Truer words never spoken.

Thread Two - Currencies and Trade

Kudo's for spotting that. It is another facet of the war we are engaged in with China. They are trying to break our hold on the world's economy.

This one is crucial.

This one, is what makes us a superpower.

If they can get the Global 80% to realign around the Yuan we are done. Control of access to the global market and controlling the world reserve currency are two of the three pillars our superpower status is built on.

We are finding out now just how much Trump fucked us over when he declared war on China with his stupid tweet.

Thread Three - Inflation

We could have a long discussion about inflation and interest rates. I lived through the inflation of the 70's and the recession of the 80's so my perspective is perhaps a little different than some of your other commentators.

For example, do you know who inflation is great for?

People who own homes with low interest long term loans. They are going to do great in a bout of inflation.

Because, their debt is fixed but the value of the money is not. If the value of money is reduced 25% their debt, in effect just went down 25%. Their house just got cheaper.

Imagine, you owe the bank 1 million on your house and you earn 100K a year. Then we have a bout of hyper inflation and prices increase 10X in 5 years.

Now you are getting paid 1 million a year because of inflation BUT YOUR MORTGAGE IS STILL FOR ONLY 1 million. You locked in that amount when you took the loan.

Now, you pay off your house in 1 year instead of 30. Inflation was your friend in that case.

My parents bought a house in California in the early 70's for 25K. After the period of inflation in the Carter years it was worth almost 200K by 1985. My fathers salary went from 35K in 1975 to 75K by 1985.

Sure prices on everything were higher, so he really wasn't "richer". But his monthly house payment stayed at $250/month until he paid of the house in 95'.

That's why banks HATE inflation. It really can screw with mortgages for decades.