The Crisis Report — 63

I am becoming more and more confident that we are looking at +3°C of warming BY 2050.

In panels a) and b) colors in the background represent temperature outcomes by 2050 depending on the evolution of the variables considered. The red area implies global mean temperatures more than +3°C above pre-industrial levels; the orange area refers to temperatures between +2°C and +3°C above pre-industrial levels; the green area represents outcomes below +2°C. Light circles represent yearly observations; dark circles represent the historical mean; diamonds represent the largest reduction in history for each region. The “World” diamond reflects the most likely GMST in 2050 according to the authors analysis.

This paper comes right out and says it.

The history of a + 3 °C future: Global and regional drivers of greenhouse gas emissions (1820–2050) — Global Environmental Change, Volume 92, July 2025, 103009

Let's consider this carefully. Reaching +3°C of warming by 2050 probably means civilizational COLLAPSE by 2050. At least the insurance industry thinks so.

From : Planetary Solvency — finding our balance with nature. Global risk management for human prosperity. Jan. 25th, 2025 Institute and Faculty of Actuaries University of Exeter, pg 32.

Their estimates are:

Global Warming limited to +2°C by 2050 = approximately -10% decline in global population (800 million deaths).

Global Warming of +2°C or more by 2050 = approximately -20% decline in global population (2 billion deaths).

Global Warming of +3°C or more by 2050 = approximately -50% decline in global population (4 billion deaths).

At +3°C of warming they forecast:

“Multiple climate tipping points triggered, tipping cascade. Breakdown of several critical…