The Crisis Report — 61

2024 marks the first time since record keeping began that all of the 10 hottest years have fallen within the most recent decade.

This chart is from the WMO report. They say the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2024 was +1.55 °C ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 average.

“That’s never happened before,” said Chris Hewitt, the director of the W.M.O.’s climate services division.

2024 was +1.55°C relative to a “pre-industrial” (1850–1900) baseline according to the World Meteorology Organization (WMO).

The Europeans say +1.6°C.

This chart is from the NYT. It is using the EU C3S dataset of observations. They say the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature in 2024 was +1.6°C above the 1850–1900 average.

Berkeley Earth, doing an independent analysis, agrees with the Europeans.

This chart is from Berkeley Earth. They are using the same datasets as the WMO BUT they also see 2024 as being +1.6°C over baseline. However, it’s much more clear that different agencies came in with different interpretations of “how warm” 2024 was.

You have to look close to see it in the Berkeley Earth graph but, the two LOWEST numbers for 2024 came from the American climate agencies GISTEMP and NOAA. The English (HadCRUT5) came in a little higher. The Europeans (ECMWF) came in the highest at +1.6°C for the year. Berkeley Earth, which is VERY mainstream, agreed with the Europeans.

Here’s a clearer way of seeing that.

The BLACK dots represent each agencies reported Global Mean Surface Temperature for 2024. Notice how the American numbers are the lowest. The American numbers are ALWAYS the lowest. According to NASA and NOAA we still haven’t climbed above +1.5°C of warming.

SO, the “official number” for 2024 is +1.55, right?

Not, exactly. It depends on who you want to believe.

The American climate science agencies “disagreed”. They didn’t see +1.5°C of warming over baseline in 2024. NOAA, which is ALWAYS the lowest number for warming, reported 2024 as just +1.45°C over baseline.

The difference between +1.6°C of warming and +1.45°C of warming is 0.15°C. That sounds like a really small number, it’s just over a tenth of a degree.

Between 1975 and 2014 the Rate of Warming averaged about +0.18°C PER DECADE.

As recently as 2014, warming of +0.15°C took about 10 years.