The Crisis Report — 45

“Half empty” or “half full”?

This is a visual metaphor for our world. The Earth is dominated by oceans. They touch and surround the terrestrial biosphere. At the center is the “anthroposphere”, the “constructed world” that we have built over the last 10,000 years.

How do you see these things?

What do they signal about the future to you?

AMERICAN INTERNAL DIVISION AND WEAKNESS

No matter how improved the Democrats position seems. The Democrats only have about a 50% chance of winning in November.

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Harris 46.4% to Trump 44.3%. Weirdly RFK Jr. is polling at 4.5%. Whose base is that vote coming out of?

According to Nate Silver 96% of voters have chosen a side. Only about 4% of the pool of voters is still “in play” and “sway-able” before the election.

In 2020 the election was decided by 2%. Trump 49% versus Biden 51%. America is DEEPLY and EVENLY divided.

Trump could lose the popular vote and “win” the Electoral College vote.

That’s what happened in 2016. In fact, of the 3 elections that Republicans “won” between 2000 and 2020 (2000, 2004, and 2016). In 2 of those 3 they didn’t win the popular vote…