The Climate is NOT a "chaotic system". Not at the "macro" scale. Looking at "micro" level noise in the system and pretending that chaotic noise is the "whole system" is dishonest.
The Climate System is pretty straightforward.
Energy from the Sun hits the Earth. Most of it gets reflected back into space.
Because our planet is "tilted" in its orientation to the Sun, the Energy from the Sun is unevenly absorbed on the Earth.
80% of the Energy from the Sun is absorbed in the Equatorial Zone of the Earth.
90% of that ENERGY goes into the Global Ocean System. GLOBAL WARMING IS OCEAN WARMING.
20% is split between the Northern and Southern "Mid-Latitudes".
Both of the Polar Zones are "Energy Sinks" for the Earth. They lose more energy during the 4 months of darkness than they take in from the Sun.
This creates an ENERGY GRADIENT between the HOT EQUATORIAL ZONE and the COLD POLAR ZONES. Heat "flows" from HOT to COLD places.
The "flow" of that heat is our Climate.
THE BOTTOM LINE OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM: THE ARCTIC ICEPACK.
If it's growing and thickening - the planet is cooling.
If it's shrinking and thinning - the planet is warming.
See how easy to understand that is?
Here’s the bad news: the Earth’s albedo has been declining during the last 20 years.
Earth’s Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021
Earth observation satellites are constantly measuring the Earth’s albedo using a suite of sensors, and the reflectivity of the planet is measured through earthshine, the light from the Earth that reflects off the Moon. This paper analyzes earthshine measurements between 1998 and 2017 to see if the Earth’s albedo is rising or declining in response to climate change. Here’s their conclusion.
“We have reported a two-decade long data set of the Earth’s nearly globally averaged albedo as derived from earthshine observations. Stringent data quality standards were applied to generate monthly and annual means. These vary significantly on monthly, annual, and decadal scales with the net being a gradual decline over the two decades, which accelerated in the most recent years (much of the decrease in reflectance occurred during the last three years of the two-decade period the team studied). Remarkably, the inter-annual earthshine anomalies agree well with those from CERES satellite observations, despite their differences in global coverage, underlying assumptions to derive the albedo, and the very different sensitivities to retroflected and wider-angle reflected light.”
The two-decade decrease in earthshine-derived albedo corresponds to an increase in radiative forcing of about 0.5 W/m2,
Which is climatologically significant (Miller et al., 2014).
For comparison, total anthropogenic forcing increased by about 0.6 W/m2 over the same period.
The CERES data show an even stronger trend of decreasing global albedo over the most recent years, which has been associated to changes in the PDO, SSTs and low cloud formation changes..
Notice that the paper quantifies how much of an effect this change in albedo is having. By 2017 it had reached 0.5 W/m2 (Watts per square meter). That doesn’t sound like much, until you realize that the effect of all our CO2 pollution for the same period was 0.6 W/m2. Bottom line.
By 2017 the decline in the Earth’s albedo doubled the rate that the Earth was warming. We are warming up twice as fast as we were.
If this keeps up, even if we don’t put any more CO2 in the atmosphere, we will get 4℃ of warming by 2100.
Here’s the TELL you MORON that the PLANETARY ALBEDO has CHANGED. That the amount of HEAT flowing into the OCEANS has jumped from 5 Hiros per second to 10 Hiros per second.
THE OCEANS ARE WARMING UP AT UNPRECEDENTED RATES. “HEAT” DOESN’T “JUST HAPPEN”. WHERE ELSE COULD THE ENERGY FOR THIS AMOUNT OF OCEAN WARMING COME FROM?
The amount of excess heat buried in the planet’s oceans, a strong marker of climate change, reached a record high in 2022, reflecting more stored heat energy than in any year since reliable measurements were available in the late 1950s, a group of scientists reported Wednesday.
That eclipses the ocean heat record set in 2021 — which eclipsed the record set in 2020, which eclipsed the one set in 2019.
Oceans surged to another record-high temperature in 2022 WAPO January 11, 2023
In 2022, the heat content in the upper 2000 meters of the Pacific ocean reached a record level “by a large margin,” researchers say, “which supports the extreme events witnessed, such as intensive heat waves and deoxygenation, and poses a substantial risk to marine life in this region.”
Oceans Broke Yet Another Heat Record in 2022, Scientists Warn Science Alert Jan 12, 2023
It was the 46th-consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th-century average, according to the NOAA analysis.
Gavin Schmidt, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies stated.
“The long-term trends are very clear, the increases in temperature are not due to natural variation. They are not due to the sun. They are not due to volcanoes. They are due to our emissions of greenhouse gases and as long as we continue to emit large amounts of greenhouse gases, these trends will continue.”
World’s Oceans Absorbed Record Heat From Warming Climate in 2022 WSJ Jan 12, 2023
THE OCEAN IS RELEASING HEAT. WE ARE HAVING A “MILD” WINTER RIGHT NOW. BY THIS SUMMER HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS WILL BE DYING IN HEATWAVES.
Because 60 years of paleoclimate research says 420ppm equals 4.0C of warming. At 0.36C of warming per decade we will find out what that's like before 2100.
