Thank you for the response on my analysis. Here is a more specific case for the Russia-China connection in Ukraine.
Motive
There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about tactics, dilettantes discuss strategy, professionals study logistics. In a world where the grain supply in 2020 was 157.3m tonnes, Russia now controls 55.6m tonnes. About one third.
With Russia to supply it with grain from Ukraine, The US loses one of the last clubs over China it had.
The US can no longer threaten to “cut off” China’s food supply.
A threat, you heard repeatedly BTW during the Trump years from administration officials. Whose attitude towards China was “these are our demands”. “Give us what we want, or we will wreck your economy with tariffs and starve your people by cutting off your food supply”.
Signals of Realignment
The Strategic Implications of the China-Russia Lunar Base Cooperation Agreement 03/21
Unless you really think this meeting and treaty was actually about a nonexistent hypothetical moonbase, something happened there. Putin and Xi made a deal.
China gets ready
China hoards over half the world's grain, pushing up global prices 12/21
China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a "historically high level," says the head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. "There is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food.
China’s stockpile of wheat accounts for about half of the world’s supply, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 02/22
As China imports record levels of grain every year, an oft-repeated vow by President Xi Jinping is given greater impetus: “The Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly held in their own hands.” 03/22
China knew in advance
China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics -NYT 03/22 Reuters
China asked Russia to delay Ukraine invasion until after Olympics, Western intel shows 03/22 CNN
China Asked Russia to Delay Ukraine War Until After Olympics, U.S. Officials Say 03/22 NYT
They made last minute agreements with Russia
Before Ukraine Invasion, Russia and China Cemented Economic Ties
Six days before the military campaign began, Russia announced a years long deal to sell 100 million tons of coal to China, a contract worth more than $20 billion. Just hours before Russia began bombing Ukraine, China agreed to buy Russian wheat despite concerns about plant diseases.
Russia and China reach agreement on wheat imports.
The effects of the Ukraine invasion on global grain prices will partly hinge on what China decides to do, the analysts said. China imports massive amounts of corn, barley and sorghum for animal feed from world markets. It could choose to buy those commodities, as well as wheat, from Russia instead of other countries. In such a situation, the impact of sanctions on global grain markets would be relatively small, they said.
On Thursday, China began approving imports of Russian wheat that had long been blocked because of Beijing’s concerns over fungus and other contaminants. The countries announced that China would begin importing Russian wheat and barley on Feb. 8, shortly after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia visited China ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
China has emerged as one of Russia’s strongest potential trade partners in the event of further sanctions from the West.
They have not sanctioned Russia
Chinese leaders have refused to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, though they have also called for respecting national sovereignty.
Conclusion
The Ukraine invasion is a coordinated strike. Russia and China believe a "Climate Crisis" is unfolding. Their models probably indicate hundreds of millions are going to die.
To Putin and Xi, those people are already dead. As sure as if you put a bullet in them. They just don't know it yet. Putin has no problem liquidating 20-30 million Ukrainians. Hundreds of millions are about to die.
Seizing Ukraine is about logistics.
It provides a secure source of wheat for China that doesn't need shipment by sea. Which avoids US naval control of the oceans.
It provides Russia with a market for Ag products, energy products, and other raw materials. It gets access to everything China makes. Which, since China makes everything, makes sanctions sorta meaningless.
Most importantly, it makes them partners in surviving the crisis. Putin is betting Russia's future on an alliance with China.
That's what I see when I look at my Go board.
