Sorry to be slow in responding, my wife has had a small stroke and things have been difficult. She is recovering and the damage seems to be minimal, but there is some damage. So, I'm not on any kind of schedule right now and my writing time is limited.

Putin may not be an "evil genius" but give the man his due. He survived the collapse of his country, the snake pit that followed that collapse, a ruthless struggle for power, and has managed to hold onto power for decades. Whatever else you think about him, he is not stupid.

So, why do you think he invaded Ukraine?

This is so far beyond the pale that there is no coming back from it. He will never be able to buy his way back to the table internationally. This makes him a pariah for the rest of his life. This isolates his country from the international markets for as long as he rules it.

This is a changes everything "forever" move for him. Players at that level rarely make moves like this. They have too much to lose if things go sour.

So, either you think this is a massive miscalculation on the part of a man who rose from being a KGB colonel to being Tsar. Or you look for what he knows that you don't.

When you are doing threat assessments and someone makes a really unexpected move you don't say, "gee they really fucked up". You ask yourself, "what am I not seeing that would motivate that move".

My analysis indicates a massive "Climate Shock" is about to hit. It's about to get really, insanely hot for about 3-5 years. I think there are going to by major failures to the global food supply and hundreds of millions are going to starve during that period.

If you agree that the Climate Shock and the famines are coming then what Putin is doing makes perfect sense. In fact what he is doing only makes sense in that context.

So, this is either a "Richard is crazy" moment or I'm right and our world as we know it is about to end. I've decided to be brave, to put out the analysis and live with the fallout.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around it though. It's so f'ing BIG.

FYI - I want to say how much I have appreciated your readership and support over the last two years. You have been my most constant reader and I have really enjoyed our conversations.