So, ask yourself why Midterms always favor the party out of power. Why would that be true?

Elections are rarely about ideas, they are usually decided by who shows up. People don’t change parties or split tickets very often.

This is more true now than ever. You do understand that the Trumpublican party is 90% WHITE. That 2 out of 3 WHITE voters in the US votes Trumpublican. That those 2 out of 3 WHITE voters are currently 42% of the population and their numbers are declining.

In 2020 only 2% of the WHITE vote swung to Biden. That’s all, just 2%. Those people, they are the “vote splitters” you are talking about. Just 2%.

We are seeing the last of the racial politics started by Rove, Atwater, and Stone in the 70’s. The Republicans have most of the WHITE vote and have dominated our politics from 68' to 2008' (28 out of 40 years and they would have had all 40 except for Watergate and Ross Perot).

The Midterms were about turnout. Both sides got a huge turnout for a Midterm election. For the Trumpublicans it wasn’t enough in most places. They got 49% vs 51%. WHITE America is at its high water mark and the tide is ebbing for them.

Now, is when they are at their most dangerous.