Short Takes — 16

Termination Shocks

Remember this? This is what is known as a “Termination Event”. The International Maritime Organization decided in 2016 to reduce the sulfur content in marine diesel fuel by 85% in 2020. By 2023 SOx particulate levels in the atmosphere were estimated to fall DRAMATICALLY. We GUESSED, based on the Moderate understanding of how much SOx was cooling the Earth, that it would only cause +0.06°C of warming.

Cutting the sulfur content 85% at once in marine diesel fuels was a “Termination Event” in the Climate System. A large component of the system suddenly changed state.

Termination Events are followed by Termination Shocks as the system adjusts to the change.

The First Termination Shock was the “Dimming Albedo.