Short Takes — 12

A few thoughts on Climate Models

Richard Crim

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The “Old” models are the green dotted line. They forecast +2C between 2080 and 2100. The Rate of Warming has accelerated since 2010 and our trajectory has become the yellow cone. Hansen is projecting +2C (year round) will be reached by 2040 and +4C between 2080 and 2100.

From James Hansen’s How We Know that Global Warming is Accelerating and that the Goal of the Paris Agreement is Dead. He is forecasting that we will reach +2C around 2040.

SO.

If you read my recent LiBT series “Unclothing the Emperor : Understanding “What’s Wrong” with our “Climate Paradigm” you know I covered a LOT of ground. There was a huge amount of research and material for the piece and not everything made the cut.

Here are some of the notes for a “Part Five” addition to the series that just didn’t come together in my head.

The topic is “Climate Models” and why the ones that “we the public” are using, probably aren’t the “best” models in existence. There are OTHER models of the Climate System.

There is a LOT of PRIVILEGED INFORMATION in Climate Science that is not being shared.

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Going back to 1979, when the Moderates and Alarmists outlined their understandings of how the Climate System worked and what the risks of continuing to burn fossil fuels might be.

1979

The Charney Report

The US National Research Council convenes a five-day “ad hoc” study group on carbon dioxide and climate at Woods Hole, Massachusetts. Chaired by Jule Charney, the assembled panel of experts (which includes a retired representative from the Mobil oil company) sets about establishing a “consensus” position on the “implications of increasing carbon dioxide”.

They compare two models — one of Manabe’s and one by James Hansen at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

The panel notes how heat from the atmosphere could be temporarily absorbed by the oceans and they also settle on a range for climate sensitivity from a LOW of +2.0C and a HIGH of +4.5C.

In 1979 the “battle lines” on CLIMATE SENSITIVITY were drawn.

For a “doubling” of atmospheric CO2, from 280ppm in 1850, to 560ppm.

The MODERATES forecast +2.0C of warming.

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Richard Crim

My entire life can be described in one sentence: Things didn’t go as planned, and I’m OK with that.