Re: China and "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers".

Start with population. Does it make sense in any "democratic" way that China, which has six times the US population, has less say in global affairs than the US?

China has a bigger working age population than the entire population of the US. There was never any way China would remain a "lesser" power unless it accepted that role.

It actually has done so for decades. Being the "Superpower" in a unipolar world comes with benefits, but it has social and economic costs. Big ones. China seems to have envisioned a more gradual transition of power.

Something like the US and Britain. A passing of the torch. A shift in the center of the world from NY to Shanghai and a Chinese dominated back half of the century. Without any ugliness or disruptive expensive warfare.

Until Trump.

I think Trump scared them. They realized that we were unstable and unreliable. They looked at the Climate models, looked at Trump, and said "time for plan B".

If we cannot stop the cracks in the Pax Americana from spreading we could face a crisis of confidence in our leadership. We have a great military, but we cannot fight the world.

Here's a scenario.

Election 2024. Trumpublican declares victory after Republican governors in key states halt counting of ballots. They declare that only in person ballots are secure and destroy all others.

Supreme Court upholds Trumpublican victory. No rebellion from military. Violent riots are suppressed.

In a vote of "no confidence" in the US elections China refuses to recognize the new President Elect and declares sanctions on the US. To our surprise 70% of the world follows suit.

That's how a Superpower collapses in a day without a shot being fired.