Putin may not be an "evil genius" but give the man his due. He survived the collapse of his country, the snake pit that followed that collapse, a ruthless struggle for power, and has managed to hold onto power for decades. Whatever else you think about him, he is not stupid.

So, why do you think he invaded Ukraine?

This is so far beyond the pale that there is no coming back from it. He will never be able to buy his way back to the table internationally. This makes him a pariah for the rest of his life. This isolates his country from the international markets for as long as he rules it.

This is a changes everything "forever" move for him. Players at that level rarely make moves like this. They have too much to lose if things go sour.

So, either you think this is a massive miscalculation on the part of a man who rose from being a KGB colonel to being Tsar, or you look for what he knows that you don't. When you are doing threat assessments and someone makes a really unexpected move you don't say, "gee they really fucked up". You ask yourself, "what am I not seeing that would motivate that move".