My Take — 08

A QUICK “Year End” review of the “State of Play”.

Richard Crim

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People walk along the drought-stricken Parana River in Argentina. Argentina is one of the eight “breadbasket” areas that feeds the planet.

SO.

Look at that picture. Then read these two reports on the agricultural situation in Argentina.

#1

44%: Expected drop in Argentina’s soybean production in 2023 relative to the last five years, the lowest harvest since 1988/89, contributing to an estimated 3% drop in Argentina’s GDP for 2023 (EU Science Hub, 2023)

Global Drought Snapshot 2023: the Need for Proactive Action

Source: UNFCCC, Posted 1 Dec 2023, View original.

#2

Argentina soybean harvest may be biggest in years, expert says.

Source : ADM-Investor Services Inc., Posted 1 Dec 2023.

Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean production could top recent harvests thanks to the abundant rains expected to water fields in the coming months, spurred by the climate phenomenon known as El Nino, a meteorologist said on Thursday.

Argentina has long been the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, but a historic drought caused it to move into second place, behind Brazil, this year with the 2022/23 soybean crop.

Yes, the drought caused a 44% CRASH IN PRODUCTION.

But El Nino, which intensifies rains in Argentina’s key agricultural region, is expected to bring the 2023/24 harvest back up to normal levels or even higher, said German Heinzenknecht, a meteorologist at the Applied Climatology Consultancy (CCA).

“El Nino’s effects came a bit slowly in the beginning (2023) for the core agricultural region, but they’re now showing more promising signs,”

Heinzenknecht said.

“We can hope for a season (2024) with much better results compared to the past five years.”

Explaining that average, to above-average precipitation, was expected through March.

Between the 2018/19…

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Richard Crim

My entire life can be described in one sentence: Things didn’t go as planned, and I’m OK with that.