Last year I said that the IPCC confirmed my analysis when they said warming could temporarily exceed 1.5C by 2026.

The IPCC forecast 0.4C of warming.

Hansen forecast 0.6C of warming.

I think it's going to be around 0.8C.

While I have great respect for Hansen I think he is overestimating the recent warming from SOx decline due to changes in Maritime fuels in 2020. I think the accelerated energy flow into the climate system is a combination of that AND changes in cloud formation triggered by the increased energy state of climate system.

I think things are worse than Hansen does in the short term. Hansen thinks things are worse in the long term. I was stunned by his forecast of 10C of warming. Although it is possible, I considered it VERY worst case.

After reading the paper several times I'm not convinced he's right about 10C. However, I think 7-8C is a 40% probability if all of the slow feedbacks happen without intervention.

I guess that's why I'm a Doomer.