Last time for awhile. You are a really good person Max, you shouldn't do geopolitical analysis. You don't have the right mindset for it.
Putin isn't going to just take over Ukraine. That would be creating an open sore that would require attention for decades. Like the Peninsular War for France during the Napoleonic reign.
Putin is going to obliterate Ukraine. As a nation and a people.
He is going to kill everyone who doesn't flee who is over the age of say 10. Maybe not outright, but that's what gulags are for. Work them all to death on infrastructure projects.
The region formerly known as Ukraine will become one giant factory farm. Because this is about logistics.
Ukraine isn't going to be another Afghanistan or Vietnam for Russia. They are going to practice Mongol warfare and leave no one to cry for the dead.
That's how Putin secures Ukraine for the long term. That's how total war is won.
The Climate Crisis is here Max. This is just the opening act. The real dying starts next year.
That's my prediction.