Richard Crim
2 min readJan 8, 2025

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Lannie is right, it's not going to suddenly create all this "farmland" in the north. The source of that meme is this.

A theoretical study published in 2011 “Agroclimatic potential across central Siberia in an altered twenty-first century” has been used as “proof” that vast new farmlands will become available due to Global Warming. The studies authors stated.

“From 50 to 85% of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture by the end of the century, and only soil potential would limit crop advance and expansion to the north. Crop production could increase twofold. Traditional Siberian crops could gradually shift as far as 500 km northwards (about 50–70 km/decade) within suitable soil conditions”.

The “On the Ground” reality suggests that the authors of the 2010 study were optimistic.

Siberia’s permafrost melt is causing swamps, lakes, making land difficult to live on: The land affected becomes largely useless for agriculture and infrastructure. Oct. 2021

Melting permafrost in Siberia could dramatically change landscape Sept 2021

“The damage done by melting permafrost will be extremely costly for Russia, with an estimate putting the bill at €58 billion by 2050.”

Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground Oct 2019

“The permafrost that once sustained farming — and upon which villages and cities are built — is in the midst of a great thaw, blanketing the region with swamps, lakes and odd bubbles of earth that render the land virtually useless.”

Fantasy Acres: Will Climate Change Actually Create More Northern Farmland? March 2023

“Most of Russia’s existing wheat belt is in the forest-steppe zone, a transitional ecosystem between central Asia’s vast grasslands and the great forests of the north. The forest-steppe zone, however, is drying out. In some regions, drought has led to 70% of their steppe zones becoming unviable for farming.

Just as temperate zones are expected to creep north, so are the (increasingly) dry, harsh conditions of the steppe, consuming the farms that currently exist — and making land eyed for new farms even more precarious. Even studies that expect massive potential for far northern agriculture admit that the existing farms to the south will collapse without irrigation.”

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Richard Crim
Richard Crim

Written by Richard Crim

My entire life can be described in one sentence: Things didn’t go as planned, and I’m OK with that.

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