It's going a lot faster than expected. I can remember when they discussed it as a possibility by 2100.

Since then the estimates have crept lower and lower. From 2080 all the way down to 2050. Now it's between 2035-2045.

Looking at the data I think sometime between 2030 and 2040 is possible. Certainly after 2040.

The big uncertainty is going to be our geoengineering efforts. We are going to try and cool the planet by injecting more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. You can count on that.

The timing of the melting of the Arctic sea ice will depend on how successful that proves to be.

Overall, what are your thoughts on my analysis?