It seems inappropriate to say "thank you for your kind words" when you have told someone that a disaster of this magnitude is coming. I should be telling you "I'm sorry".

Also, keep this in mind I am an extreme outlier right now. No one else is seeing the disaster I am predicting yet. So, I could just be a very smart “crazy person”.

I’m the crazy person telling you that “life as we knew it” ends in 12–18 months. That we are “in crisis” right now, even if it is happening so slowly that it’s hard to perceive.

I am normally inclined to a more conservative analysis. But we live in strange times now.

The need for more data before reaching a conclusion is always with us. We all fear “jumping to a conclusion” and being wrong. If you are a scientist or a doctor that can be career ending.

Waiting for certainty can be worse.

Back in July of 2020 I wrote a six month analysis on Covid (This is Going to be Bad — 08) where I declared it to be an airborne virus. The CDC was still saying it was transmitted by droplets on surfaces.

This was stupid on their part because the evidence overwhelmingly indicated that the virus was airborne. But they “had to be 100% beyond a shadow of a doubt certain” that what they said was correct.

They didn’t declare the virus airborne for another 18 months. By which time this information was worthless.

After two years, we all knew the virus was airborne. They weren’t leading, they were following. It was pathetic.

By the time we have “perfect knowledge” of how the Earth’s climate system works it will be too late to do anything to save ourselves.

As an analyst, who was also a military officer at one point in my life, I was trained to make decisions based on what you know at that instant. Which is why I am putting this “out there” and reducing my standing to “Lunatic Fringe”.

Just so we are clear, right now, I am “the lunatic fringe” of serious climate writers.

I am forecasting fatalities between 800 million and 1.5 billion over the next five years. At this time, I am alone in this forecast.

No other agency or analyst publicly agrees with me at this time. Even those who are warning of a “food crisis” because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are not projecting famine deaths in the hundreds of millions yet.

So, you have to decide for yourself how credible you find my analysis. Sadly, while a number of people have disagreed with me, no one has been able to disprove my analysis.