Richard Crim
2 min readFeb 1, 2022

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I'm sorry, how did you get to "we've only got 20 years left, maybe less"?

The intent of piece wasn't "oh G-d, oh G-d, we're all going to die". Because we're not. Climate Change isn't a comet strike or a "Day After Tomorrow" disaster movie. It happens slowly in human terms.

Even in the hyper accelerated state of "bomb time" we are in now, things will take decades to play out. It's not about sudden collapse, it's about ever increasing rates of attrition.

One of the best documentaries on climate change I have seen came out in 2010. It was called "Earth 2100". If you haven't seen it here's a link to it on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg

It's a little dated but it's still one of the best climate change videos out there. Because it shows how the disaster will play out over the rest of this century. In the lifetime of someone born in 2010.

There are still going to be people in 2024, in 2062, in 2082, and in 2102. But, it's becoming more likely that there will only be about 1/4 as many of us by 2102 as there are now.

That's 80 years in the future. Most of us alive now are going to die of natural deaths as we watch the world get slowly worse. Lots of young people are going to have shorter lives and fewer kids as we get deeper into the century and conditions deteriorate.

That's how die-back by attrition works.

This has happened before. In 150AD the population of Europe and the Mediterranean Basin was about 75 million. Then in started getting colder. 500 years later the population was only around 34 million. Rome had fallen and things had changed but people were still around.

In England during the 1300's the climate went sour at the end of the Medieval Long Summer. At the start of the century the population was about 7 million, by the end it was just over 3. 50% die-back in one century. Due to starvation, disease, and social disruptions. It was a very bad time but the social order didn't collapse.

Accepting the reality of what we have done to the Climate and the planet doesn't make you a "Doomer" it makes you a realist. A lot of people are going to die in the rest of this century. A lot of people having kids now won't be grandparents because their kids won't have children. If you're realistic about what's happening you can improve their odds.

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Richard Crim
Richard Crim

Written by Richard Crim

My entire life can be described in one sentence: Things didn’t go as planned, and I’m OK with that.

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