If you are having cognitive dissonance because the media still keeps yammering about 1.5C and reality seems so much worse. Then you should take notes while you read this.

Umair is telling you what's really happening with the world. He is not exaggerating. He is not "fear mongering".

If anything, he is somewhat optimistic. He is not steeped in Climate Science and doesn't understand the implications of the paleoclimate dataset.

The last time CO2 levels were this high the planet was 4C warmer. At 400ppm the planet was 4C warmer, beech and aspen forests were growing in Antarctica, and sea level was 78 feet higher.

At 400ppm.

We have been monumentally stupid.

It was assumed that warming would be a slow process over centennial timescales. The idea was that we could do a slow transition to Net Zero and THEN a future generation would do the work of pulling the excess CO2 out of the atmosphere.

When Umair says temperatures will go up a bit and then level off, that's slightly wrong.

Temperatures will keep going up rapidly until equilibrium is reached. Which, the paleoclimate data indicates will be around 4C. That's when they will level off.

How fast will that happen?

About 40-60 years.

The rate of warming is now at 0.36C per decade. Assuming it doesn't get worse, that's 2C of addition warming by 2080. On top of the 2C we are already at.

You thought warming was at 1.2C?

What year are you measuring from.

1880,the hottest year of the 19th century?

or

1850, the old baseline for calculating the effect of CO2 on the atmosphere.

It makes a difference of 0.4–0.6C of warming.

Here is some additional information.

We are at an “observable” 1.2C of warming. Actual warming is at 1.5C to.1.9C.

The difference is caused by warming that is “masked” by the cooling effect of S0x particulates. We have been geoengineering the climate for a long time. We have been making it “feel” cooler than it really should be.

Don’t believe me?

See what the IPCC has to say.

IPCC, Climate Change 2021 Summary for Policymakers, page 7

Look at the graph. Or read my analysis.

Heat doesn’t “just happen” — Where it’s coming from and why that matters

How much has the Earth warmed up since the “preindustrial” period? — Surprisingly it’s hard to get a straightforward answer to that question.

1.2C is a sham number arrived at by shifting the goalposts and setting 1880 as the baseline measurement year. Important thing to know, 1880 was the hottest year of the 19th century.

1.2C is a political number. Meaningless except for the appearance of making the situation appear less dire so that the population doesn’t go into ENDTIMES craziness.

Some of that heat is about to be unmasked and we are about to take a BIG step up the heat ladder. If you don’t know what the heat ladder is, go look at the graph at the end of my newest article.

Let’s talk about Climate Science. Specifically, let’s talk about why “Climate Science” was 30–40 years off on how fast the planet would warm up.

If you look at a graph of the warming Earth, since the 70’s it forms a “step ratchet” pattern. A period of rapid warming and rising temperatures followed by a short period of La Nina cooling. Followed by another period of rapid warming.

We got a rare third year in this La Nina. This is a cool year compared to what’s coming. Next year we start climbing up the ladder and it’s going to be a BIG step.

The historical analog’s are the El Nino’s of 1880 and the late 30’s. But this time it won’t cool down.

The next step up the ladder is probably going to boost planetary temperatures by 0.6C.

That’s what’s going to happen over the next 4–7 years.

Any questions?

Final note:

I’m sure Umair is tired of me comment bombing his column. So this is my last comment. Thank you for your patience Umair.