If anything Umair is saying here surprises you then your information is out of date. A MASSIVE amount of new Climate Science has happened in just the last few years.
For example do you know what an Argo float is?
What happened was that in the early Aughts there was a problem with the climate models and the oceans. The models indicated the oceans should be warming faster than they seemed to be. The oceans were too cold.
The Climate Deniers seized on this with the usual “climate models are crap” argument. Saying yet again that the models overemphasized warming.
Instead of arguing with them, the climate scientists built a global network of thousands of autonomous robots — called Argo floats –that dive down to depths of 2,000 meters or so and measure temperature, salinity, pH and other ocean characteristics as they slowly ascend. Once the Argo floats surface, the data they have collected is relayed back to scientists by satellite.
The upshot of this new data: The climate models were right after all, and the oceans are warming much faster than anyone understood.
What the measurements showed is that we had underestimated the amount of heat in the oceans by 40%. The amount of warming in the oceans was much higher than anyone knew because we weren't measuring heat below 500 meters.
The models weren’t “overestimating” the heating effect of the increased CO2 levels. If anything, they were underestimating it. They were too cautious.
This information has only developed since 2019.
Here's another example.
Do you know what the paleoclimate data says the Earth's temperature was the last time the CO2 level was 420ppm?
If you haven't been following the science on this you probably don't have a clue. Spoiler alert, it was 4C warmer than our baseline.
The paleoclimate data suggest that the Earth was 4C warmer at a CO2 level of around 400ppm. We are now at 420ppm.
In the paleoclimate record,
Going from 400ppm to roughly 550ppm takes us to 6C of warming.
Going from 550ppm to roughly 1000ppm takes us to 9C of warming.
Going from 1000ppm to roughly 2000ppm takes us to about 15C of warming. Which is the hottest the Earth has gotten in the last 500my.
The paleoclimate data indicates that up to 9C of warming is possible at CO2 levels of 1000ppm.
The paleoclimate data indicates that we underestimated the Climate sensitivity of the Earth for the 280ppm to 1000ppm CO2 range. That our “worst case” estimate of 5.7C at 560ppm is actually the most likely.
This represents an underestimate on the effect of increasing CO2 concentrations on the GMT by about 40%. Which is about the same amount that the Argo floats found we had underestimated the amount of heat in the oceans.
All of the hard physical data we are gathering indicates our models were biased towards underestimating the effects of increasing CO2 levels. All of the hard physical data indicates we were off by about 40%.
All of the hard physical data we have gathered, says our climate models were “timid”. We have been fooling ourselves.
What’s about to happen isn’t going to be a “Climate Disaster” it’s going to be a “Climate Apocalypse”. We are going to 4C by 2100, possibly as early as 2080.
China and Russia have realized the Climate Models are off and how bad things are about to get. They are making “endgame moves” because they think that the endgame has started.
In 2020 the GMT was an “observable” 1.2C warmer than it was in 1880, the hottest year of the 19th century. It took about 140 years for the Earth’s GMT to increase that 1.2C.
We are on track to get another 1.0C of warming over the next 30 years.
If you haven't kept up to date on climate science you will be stunned by the data pouring in now. Listening to the fuckwits who kept screaming that Climate Change was a hoax or that regulation of burning fossil fuels was premature "until the science was in" has probably crashed our civilization.
The Climate Crisis is here, right now.
Dealing with it should be the ONLY issue on everyone’s mind - because we are out of time.
