I have become rapidly more pessimistic this year. Last summer I was thinking in terms of 2040-2050 for the Crisis Point. When I was writing On Politics- 02 just before COP26 I had moved the Crisis Point up to 2030. When I wrote my Climate Report in February I was still thinking 2030.

Then Putin invaded Ukraine and everything came together in my head. I saw that the Climate Crisis had started and why.

We are not prepared for this. Perhaps we were never going to be. But, yes I think 800 million to 1.5 billion are going to die in the next five years.

Before this crisis started there were already about 1.2 billion people living with daily food insecurity. They were already on the brink of starvation. This is going to be the push that sends them over the edge.

The unknown, is how much collateral damage their dying is going to cause. If global warfare breaks out my estimates could double.

We are on the brink. Think 1939, "the Phony War" period. Hitler has invaded Poland, Britain and France have declared war on Germany the crisis has started but nothing was happening. That last little instant of the old normal before everything starts coming apart.

That's the moment we are in now.