Honest, harsh, absolutely not "to soon". Still probably not going to sway the hardcore believers yet. People will stick will bad ideology right up to the point of death in many cases.

My wife used to say, "it's going to take a year with 2 or 3 major hurricanes, followed by another year of the same" before people understand that Florida has ZERO future. Until then, they will keep telling themselves it's just natural variation in the weather and random chance.

It's really hard to get people to change their beliefs.