Great piece, and very timely.
‘Record smashing’ heatwaves: Research reveals which countries are most at risk.
Scientists used climate data and modelling to pinpoint where in the world temperature records are most likely to be broken and the communities in the greatest danger from extreme heat.
They found that “statistically implausible extremes” occurred in 31 per cent of the regions they analyzed between 1959 and 2021.
There was no particular pattern to where these temperature abnormalities were happening. This means these extremes, where current records are broken by margins that seem impossible until they occur, could happen anywhere.
In this study, we show that such record-smashing events could occur anywhere.
Dann Mitchell
Study co-author
“We have seen some of the most unexpected heatwaves around the world lead to heat-related deaths in the tens of thousands,” says co-author Dann Mitchell, Professor in Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment.
The researchers also say countries that are yet to experience the most intense heatwaves are particularly susceptible to harm. Adaptation measures are often only introduced after the worst effects are felt.
Just because it hasn't happened where you live, doesn't make you safe. The study warns that those places are the most at risk. Because no one expects it and so no one is prepared.
Afghanistan, which the study calls “one of the least developed countries globally”, is of particular concern. Though the region usually has hot summers, an abnormal weather event could see temperatures approach the limits of the human body. Steep projected population growth also exacerbates potential risks from hotter temperatures.
In Central America, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama were also highlighted by the study’s authors. Extreme heat in these countries could jump well above anything they have seen before. This makes it difficult for them to adapt to the maximum temperatures of the future.
Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands are all overdue for a record heatwave too and population density puts them at risk. But, as developed nations, they are much more likely to have plans in place to mitigate risks.
Global research reveals countries where record-breaking heatwaves are likely to cause most harm - SciDaily April 25, 2023
A LOT of people are going to die from heat in the next few years.
Meanwhile.
India braces for heatwave amid soaring temperatures. What could it mean for Europe's food supplies?
