Extremely well written and articulate. Your educational achievements shine through. Plus, you get it. You have an understanding of almost all of the variables in play.
Your numbers are a little off.
You are right, in that Ukraine is the start of WWIII. Here's why Putin invaded and how China is connected.
In this on I rehash your points and add this.
"Are you naïve enough to believe that Putin didn’t know this was going to happen when he invaded Ukraine? He’s counting on millions of starving climate refugees flooding into Europe. That’s part of his strategy.
Those starving people are Putin’s flank attack on Europe. That’s how ruthless Putin is.
No one can intervene in Ukraine, so as long as he wants to feed Russian troops into the meat grinder that war will grind on. He might not be able to “win” right now but he can prevent Ukraine from functioning as a country."
I am forecasting 800m to 1.5 billion dead by 2027.
Here's the science part.
I know it's a lot to read and process. I'm sure you think I'm a crazy person.
At least consider this.
The first big "Climate Shock" is about to hit. In 12 to 18 months a perfect storm of warming will kick in that will last 3-5 years.
It's a 3 part storm:
1. Albedo diminishing has doubled the rate of warming in the last 7 years. It's simple, if the planetary albedo declines, the earth warms up.
Here's the bad news: the Earth's albedo has been declining during the last 20 years in response to the planetary warming.
Earth's Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine pub. Aug 2021 Geophysical Letters
2. The La Nina cycle we are in will flip into an El Nino.
3. Warming that was being masked by SOx emissions will rapidly take place due to the changes in diesel fuels in the shipping industry in 2020.
All of this will combine to push warming above 2C by 2026. The next 2-6 years are going to be insanely hot.
There is no going back, and we are about to have a "heatwave".
Forecasters say there's a 93 per cent chance that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record.
Earth Stands '50:50' Chance Of Passing 1.5 Degrees Warming Within 5 Years - Forbes
Fifty-fifty chance' global warming hits 1.5°C by 2026, warn scientists - Euronews
There's a 50:50 chance the planet will pass the 1.5C warming threshold in the next 5 years - CNN
As 1.5C overshoot looms, a high-level commission will ask: what next? - Climate Home News
World has 50–50 chance of hitting 1.5C mark soon: U.N. - Frontline India
When will the world reach 1.5C of global heating? - The Guardian
When the IPCC says that there is a 50% chance the GMT will "temporarily" exceed 1.5℃ of warming by 2026, what exactly do they mean by that?
We are going to 2.0C by 2026.