Ed, I just said this to Michael. It applies here as well.
Basically,
EVERY year from here on out, is more likely than not, to end up with things being worse at the end of the year than at the beginning.
At some point, maintenance of our current civilization will no longer be possible and regression will start. When that line is crossed is when I think things REALLY speed up.
Modeling social responses to the Climate Crisis is actually much HARDER than modeling the Climate System.
I feel like I have at least a "Sim Earth" level of understanding with my personal GCM. I understand the ENERGY flows and have a "big picture" visualization of the system in my head.
Social systems are SO MUCH MORE chaotic.
There is also the BIG Question. Are we deluding ourselves?
I mean, I "believe" I understand the Climate System enough to see that we are about to have a CRISIS.
Pretty arrogant of me.
I also "believe" that this that this CRISIS will overwhelm our civilization and that a "dark age" is upon us.
Again, pretty arrogant of me.
After all, it has been predicted in the past and hasn't happened yet.
I have thought about this a lot and have struggled with how to put it into perspective. I don't want to be a "prepper" again. I went down that road in the 80's. It's pointless and tedious.
I tried "techno-optimism" for awhile.
It's really appealing to have a near religious "faith" in the transformative power of technology. Like Arthur C. Clarke observed, "a sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic".
It's the prevailing faith right now. The people like you and I, are heretics, infidels, and unbelievers. Our belief that collapse has started makes us "fringe" in the worst way right now.
Because people are starting to be scared that we are right.
When a religious majority has its core beliefs challenged and really threatened. They tend to react by demanding conformity as tolerance for fringe beliefs and ideas evaporates. Scared people often do really awful things historically.
It's just that I cannot believe in techno-optimism and the endless resources of the "high frontier" in space anymore. We wasted too much time.
I see collapse happening to quickly now and, I guess, "believe" it's about to get a lot worse. What the Hell do you do with that belief?
It's not like we are all on here chanting.
"Rejoice Bother's and Sister's the End is actually fucking Nigh! Can I get a Hallelujah Amen, fellow Doomers!"
Maybe I'm wrong. It's still early days.
Maybe things get bad and then we "pull back from the brink" like in a sci-fi movie. Maybe we get cheap space travel and the resources of the solar system solve all our problems.
Maybe our AI "God" solves everything for us in 20 years and the 'Age of Aquarius' begins. That's what the techno-optimists are preaching and it's the majority faith of the day.
Collapse has happened before.
Our day,
like some rough beast,
its hour come round at last.
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born.
In the 13th century, after 400 years of good weather in Europe, it suddenly got colder. In England agricultural output dropped by 50% during the next 100 years. So did the population.
Ask yourself, "if I had known in 1324 what was about to happen, and nothing I did or said would prevent 50% of the people around me from starving, what would I have done?"
I preach that COLLAPSE is upon us because I believe it. The evidence I can see leads me to that conclusion.
I preach so that those who have eyes to SEE, ears to HEAR, and minds to UNDERSTAND might be warned. So that they can choose their futures and how they will respond to the TIDE that engulfs us.
