An interesting and in-depth analysis of the current situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. As usual for this type of article on the “Ukraine War”, it is deeply flawed by the author's focus on the tactical situation instead of the strategic "big picture".
The author is looking at a single tree and missing the forest. The author is ignoring the "Climate Crisis". The author is missing the US/China war.
Without understanding that, you cannot understand what's happening. What the "Ukraine War" is really about and what Putin's objectives are.
Putin intends to liquidate the Ukrainian population completely. There will be no protracted "partisan" war or constant rebellions because there won't be any more Ukrainians.
The Climate Crisis is about to get EXTREMELY BAD.
We are about to have a MASSIVE HEAT SPIKE GLOBALLY. It's already started and by this Summer will be horrific.
Global agricultural output will probably fall 40%-50% this year. It will stay depressed for the next 4-6 years.
I am forecasting deaths in the 800 million to 1.2 billion range during this period. To Putin and Xi these people are already dead, they just don't know it yet.
We are in a moment of history where things could go CATASTROPHICALLY BAD.
In terms of the current war.
We have announced plans to reopen bases in the Philippines.
We are considering allowing South Korea going nuclear.
Last month, the U.S. and Japan agreed to adjust the American troop presence on the island of Okinawa in part to enhance anti-ship capabilities that would be needed in the event of a Chinese incursion into Taiwan or other hostile acts in the South or East China sea.
They also added a formal mention of outer space in the longstanding U.S.-Japan security treaty, making clear that “attacks to, from and within space” could trigger the mutual defense provisions of the treaty.
*Note: What they are talking about when they say “within space” are things like the GPS satellite network. Meaning, if China tries to cripple our military capabilities by attacking assets in space, it’s an act of War”
And Japan announced it would begin constructing a pair of runways on the small southern island of Mageshima where joint exercises, amphibious operations and missile interception could begin in about four years.
How the US is boosting military alliances to counter China
On the diplomatic front, the U.S. opened an embassy in the Solomon Islands this week, in a direct effort to counter China’s growing influence there. There had been an embassy in the Solomons for several years, but it was closed in 1993 as part of a global reduction in diplomatic posts. Over time, however, the U.S. became concerned about possible weakening ties with the country.
The Solomon Islands switched allegiance from the self-ruled island of Taiwan to Beijing in 2019. And last year, the Solomons signed a security pact with China, raising fears of a military buildup by Beijing in the region.
In the West we obsess over Chess. In Asia the game of choice is Go. They are very different games.
Echoes of stones being played on the board.
Move and counter move.
A masterful stroke.
Sente China.
The point is not the balloons, the point is to scare White Trumpublican America into a panic.
So that they demand “The Homeland” be defended. So that they feel insecure and want to “pull in” US forces.
The average FOX viewer has no clue about our strategic weakness right now. They have no clue that 90% of the world’s supply of computer chips comes from Taiwan.
The island dominates production of the chips that power almost all advanced civilian and military technologies. In dominating the fabrication of the most advanced semiconductors, the giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) has captured a technology that’s crucial to the cutting-edge digital devices and weapons of today and tomorrow.
TSMC accounts for more than 90% of global output of these chips, according to industry estimates.
A war game and study by a think tank (Center for a New American Security) in January of last year highlighted how dependent the world is on Taiwan’s semiconductor foundries. The study concluded that.
The United States is more dependent on Taiwan’s high-end microchips than it was on Middle Eastern oil in decades past.
If we lose Taiwan, we are crippled as a superpower. If Taiwan gets bombed and the chip foundries get damaged, global production of products containing computer chips will be curtailed for at least 3 years and as much as 10. Those chip foundries are probably the most important manufacturing facilities on the planet.
It will take 5 to 10 years for any of the new plants funded by the CHIPS ACT to come online.
During that time, if anything happens to Taiwan the US is F’ED. We don’t make enough chips to resupply our military demand.
Oh, and BTW we are BURNING through advanced munitions in Ukraine. Those being the force multiplier allowing them to hold their own against the Russians.
Let’s recap.
We are burning through advanced munitions faster than we can replace them and the plants that make 90% of the world’s supply of computer chips are right off the coast of China.
The snap of stones
on the board.
Encircling, capturing, defeating.
Plus, we have to keep supporting Ukraine. We have to project STRENGTH to the World. We are the DOMINANT SUPERPOWER.
Part of that is looking like we have bottomless resources.
If we suddenly “throttle back” now, it will look like we have run low on supplies. Suddenly we will look really WEAK.
There is an INSANE amount of diplomacy going on right now. The whole world order is being stressed.
Last year in Iran there were riots over water. They cut the taps in several cities and people rioted.
They fired into the rioters with live ammunition.
The riots going on right now are tied to the Climate Crisis. My simulations are now indicating a 75% likelihood of Civil War in Iran by the end of the year.
This will further destabilize the entire region and send additional waves of refugees into Europe. Dominoes are starting to fall.
Last Thought —
We don’t really know 100% “for sure” what China’s chip making capacity actually is. A LOT of manufacturing in China is done by the Military for internal consumption.
What if China has chip fabrication plants that no one knows about?
What if China is sitting on a stockpile of chips and is able to supply their military demand during a hot war.
If they have a stockpile, the US position is even weaker. They could simply outlast us.
“The greatest victory is that which is achieved without battle” — Sun Tzu
