Absolutely, with the proviso that this is one guys analysis and so far no one else agrees with him. I could be wrong. We could get lucky and a volcano could blow off and cool things down for years. None of this is "100% for sure".

But I am confident enough to put this put there and defend it. I think this is what's happening. Putin's grab at Ukraine and the deal with China is what seals it for me.

They are making big, bold, go for broke because it's win or die, endgame moves. Their information and models are better than mine. I have to assume they know what's coming better than I do.